By UnSub

2008 was a year of death for the MMO genre. As economic conditions changed, a number of titles died or were cancelled. It was a tipping point - launching a MMO wasn't enough for it to be successful any more; instead you needed a strong basic offer and continued improvement to keep players subscribing and interested.

By comparison, 2009 was a year of pain. There were fewer dead MMOs (although some that died were still very notable) but that was because of the number that went out in 2008. Instead, 2009 was a year of layoffs, mergers and lawsuits.

Economic conditions saw less money for development outside of the big companies or big IPs and less tolerance for mistakes, meaning people were laid off and / or titles cancelled or put on hold - the biggest scalp to go was Mark Jacobs, then CEO of Mythic Entertainment and one of the original well-known modern MMO developers. More MMOs of all sizes continued to enter the market, further diluting the pool of players available to each title. Mergers saw big companies getting bigger through acquisition of development studios that might have some potential to make lots of money for them in the foreseeable future. Lawsuits sprung up around valuable IP licenses that could be used to create further MMOs. All were signs of the pain the MMO industry was going through as it faced both inward and outward challenges.

The major industry shift that occurred in 2009 was in how Western MMOs went after revenue: an increasing number of studios added in / launched with cash shops and microtransactions, while 'free-to-play' (F2P) became not quite the derogatory term that it had been. Some major titles launched as F2P while others converted (some successfully, some not). Although accountants like the simplicity of sub fee revenue, as competition increases it becomes harder to attract those 300 000 players needed to pay $15 a month to keep things profitable enough. Cash shops / microtransactions plus sub fees lets a title earn potentially more revenue per player than a pure sub model, making it more attractive to do, while a pure cash shop / microtransaction revenue model has also a good number of case studies that show they can be very successful.

It should be recognised that for all the complaints about F2P / microtransaction titles, these new and revised F2P games saw millions of players register. Someone out there isn't being turned off by the idea of maybe not paying a sub fee but instead spending a dollar or two on an outfit for their characters or some XP potions.

As for the MMOs launched in 2009, it could be argued that few lived up to expectations. The hype levels for several titles reached fever pitch about how new and innovative these titles would be; what arrived were near-corpses propped up on chairs and made to look alive through a rope-and-pulley system in order to entertain an increasingly jaded and disinterested audience.

The prediction for 2010 is that the pain will continue. There will be more layoffs, cancellations and closures - there are too many MMOs arriving in the market while economic conditions are still uncertain (the video game industry might be recession tolerant, but investors aren't). More overhyped titles will arrive in the market and it is highly unlikely that any of the big name IP-based games are going to shake things up (Star Wars: The Old Republic really isn't going to, if it is a MMO at all and if it launches in 2010), while lower budget indie productions aren't going to have the appearance and marketing to draw in large numbers of players... and you need player numbers if you are going to make an impact. More titles will go F2P / cash shop / microtransaction over (or alongside) sub fees. World of Warcraft is still going to be market leader at the end of the year while Final Fantasy XIV, if launched, will be #2. Warhammer Online is pretty unlikely to see the other end of 2010 and it might even take Ultima Online with it if EA displays its usual subtlety and Mark Jacobs was right.

2010 will see a raft of allegedly MMOFPSs launch - Huxley, The Agency, Global Agenda, APB et al probably can't beta test forever - but all will struggle at getting PC players to pay box cost plus sub fees for what they can currently get for just a box cost (and then there is the PvP aspect of all of those games and how well that tends to go down when you are paying to play). Those that go F2P / microtrans still have to attract enough paying players to stay alive and that isn't going to be easy in such a saturated FPS gaming market.

Growth in browser-based / iPhone / Facebook MMOs and MMO-likes will continue since they have taken on board on of WoW's key strengths: make the game accessible to as many people as possible, not just those with cutting edge gaming rigs. It won't be widely talked about because unless it comes from a major publisher / has a notable IP, it won't be considered a "real" MMO... just like F2Ps weren't.

The non-hype highlights of 2009 follow, month by month.

January:
Darkfall Online launches. Well, kinda - Adventurine announced a launch, then turned it into a stress test. The full launch was pushed back to February 25.

FusionFall launches - a free-to-play (F2P) MMO that leverages IP from the Cartoon Network and is aimed at kids.

Although North American and European servers came down on January 31, Hellgate: London continues operation and development in certain markets under HanbitSoft as a F2P title.

February:
EA announces layoffs that cut into Warhammer Online's development team. Only having 300 000 players when break even was set closer to 500 000 is likely a big reason behind these layoffs.

NCsoft makes cuts to its European division that finally remove any chance that it might have developed a MMO. NCsoft rests all of its Western hopes on a successful Aion release in September.

Jumpgate Evolution plans an official June release.

Darkfall finds out that launching is hard to do. Players who want to buy Darkfall also find this hard to do due to Adventurine limiting the number of keys available every day.

March:
Cheyenne Mountain Entertainment's Stargate Worlds manages to appear as the main sponsor of a racing car despite putting no money into the sponsorship. This was perfect, because they were also having issues paying their employees and their bills.

Another F2P, Runes of Magic, launches, claiming 700 000 registered players worldwide.

Gazillion Entertainment appears out of nowhere with a 10 year exclusive deal with Marvel to release its MMO property, four studios (including established NetDevil and established-yet-still-barren Slipgate Ironworks) and at least four MMOs - Lego Universe, Jumpgate Evolution, Marvel Super Hero Squad and Marvel Universe. The first MMO, Super Hero Squad, is due out in 2010.

April:
FusionFall announces it has 4 million registered players. No comment on how many of them are paying or still playing, but these are large numbers for a F2P title.

City of Heroes / Villains releases Issue 14, which contains a player generated content system.

Interplay and Bethseda start their legal dance over who gets the rights to release a Fallout MMO after Bethseda bought some rights to the Fallout IP in 2007. Interplay had tapped Masthead Studios to get to work on their Project V13 aka the Fallout MMO. Legal action kicked off in September.

Blizzard ends its arrangement with its Chinese distributor The9 and announces they've replaced them with NetEase.

Acclaim's Chronicles of Spellborn, a 'freemium' game with both sub fees and F2P aspects, launches.

April marked the launch of another important F2P title - Free Realms. This was SOE's first major title launch since Vanguard in January 07 and a huge shift in direction. F2P and aimed at kids is a long way from where an established, serious MMO publisher would consider a safe bet not too long ago.

May:
The bet paid off (at least in overall interest): Free Realms hits 1 million registered players in 18 days (and ends up with 5 million registered accounts by July). Little commentary exists on how many of those registered accounts hang on and how well they pay, but SOE continues to push on with Free Realms so it has to be paying the bills.

City of Heroes / Villains bans players for (surprise!) abusing its player generated content system.

Shadowbane, the original-play-to-crush-once-sub-fees-now-F2P, closes its servers.

The fallout from Tabula Rasa's end continues - Richard Garriott sues NCsoft for mischaracterising his dismissal, which had an impact on the value of his stock options.

Eurogamer reviews Darkfall, gives it 2/10. Darkfall devs throw down on the review, claiming the reviewer didn't spend long enough playing and that the reviewer was wrong for the game. Eurogamer says they'll do a re-review.

EVE reaches six years since release and 300000 active accounts - an incredibly impressive achievement for an indie MMO that launched with only 20000 active accounts.

June:
Sony Online Entertainment (SOE) appears pretty happy with the reaction that Station Cash (its microtransaction system) is receiving since implemented in Everquest and Everquest II by surprise in December 2008.

Jumpgate Evolution doesn't launch.

EA shows Mythic President Mark Jacobs the door - thus separating one of the most well-known MMO devs from the studio he founded - and kinda shuffle BioWare and Mythic together.

ZeniMax Media buys id Software.

Chronicles of Spellborn's original devs go bankrupt - the title is picked up by Frogster and goes full F2P.

WoW loses 6m in China players as the transition from The9 to NetEase is held up by lawsuits and Chinese authorities.

July:
Darkfall officially launches in North America, requiring current players to buy an American client if they wish to play on US servers. This coincides with Eurogamer's re-review that gives Darkfall 4/10.

An in-game bank executive in EVE steals ISK and converts it to real money - about $5800 Canadian.

After four years, SOE's The Matrix Online shuts down.

August:
Two senior people at NCsoft West - Jeff Strain and David Reid - depart at about the same time. This, together with the earlier replacement of Chris Chung by Jaeho Lee as NCsoft West CEO, sees the Western side of NCsoft undergoing some serious management shake-ups.

Turbine starts legal action against Atari over allegations of breached licensing agreements around Dungeons and Dragons Online.

Cheyenne Mountain Entertainment announces they've got new sources of funding, so Stargate Worlds is definitely continuing development.

Vogster's CrimeCraft launches with a box cost, subscription fee and cash shop.

September:
Three new MMOs launched in September: Aion, Champions Online and Fallen Earth. Aion sold nearly a 1m boxes but was filled with more bots than a Skynet reunion along with huge queues. Champions Online issued a launch day patch that heavily changed aspects of the game that people decided to buy the title on, while it took time to get the microtrans store working. Fallen Earth finally arrived after many, many years in development as an indie title, but probably found it hard to stand out in such a competitive launch month especially after changing its launch date several times.

Oh, and Hello Kitty Online launched in Europe (and other locations that weren't North America).

Dungeons and Dragons Online completes the transition from a subscription-based revenue model to a F2P one.

Activision Blizzard CEO Robert Kotick appears satisfied he's "take[n] all the fun out of making video games" and has a company culture of "skepticism, pessimism, and fear" because it's led to some very good profits. Having WoW probably didn't hurt either.

October:
Archlord is shut down in North American and Europe by Codemasters and re-launched by Webzen a few days later.

CrimeCraft goes F2P.

Gazillion's Slipgate Ironworks studio team is made smaller with layoffs. Other MMO studios also see layoffs, closures.

Cities XL - a city-building MMO - launches.

November:
Warhammer Online announces an unlimited free trial of one of their first content areas, no doubt in an attempt to attract some players back.

Cryptic Studio reveals that Star Trek Online is going to launch in February 2010 after an incredibly brief four month beta testing period.

How Mythic started the year is how Mythic ended the year: with more layoffs announced.

Blizzard softly enters the microtrans area with a cash shop where WoW players can buy in-game pets.

December:
The consumer side of Raph Koster's Metaplace announces its closure. It tried something different that didn't quite catch on, but making players pay for creating their own content is always going to be a challenge. At least it went out with dignity.

Alganon launches and attracts some attention for being very similar to WoW - but that was intentional.

Interplay wins the first stage of Betheseda's lawsuit against the Fallout MMO IP - a judge denied an injunction that would have halted work on Project V13.

Hasbro sues Atari over the Dungeons and Dragons license, claiming that Atari violated their agreement. This sees Atari being sued by both the licensor and licensee of the same IP.

Cheyenne Mountain Entertainment announces that Stargate Worlds is being backburnered to a degree and the main focus is on their newly announced multiplayer FPS title, Stargate: Resistance.

NCSoft's Dungeon Runners will shut down Jan 1, 2010. So it just squeaks out of 2009, but it counts here.

Near Death Studios announces that it is closing. Meridan 59, one of the original graphical MMOs, will continue to operate... somehow.